One of North India's leading PV module maker · On the cusp of becoming a vertically integrated solar powerhouse · The 2.2 GW cell factory changes the earnings profile entirely
Market Cap
~₹2,143Cr
CMP ₹839 · Apr 2026
TTM Revenue
₹1,879Cr
+228% YoY
TTM PAT
₹185Cr
+227% YoY
ROCE / ROE
50% / 48%
FY25 full year
Trailing P/E
~11.4x
vs peers 20–43x
Order Book
₹1,900Cr
Dec 2025
☀ PV Modules
Core revenue engine. 2.4 GW installed, scaling to 3.6 GW by FY27. Clients: NTPC, SECI, Tata Power, HAL, Coal India. ~83% of revenue mix.
🏭 TOPCon Cell Factory
2.2 GW G12R facility under construction at Kosi Kotwan. Phase 1 (1.4 GW) targeted end-Q1 FY27. This single project transforms the margin profile.
⚡ EPC + Pumps + IPP
115 MW EPC target + 100 MW IPP. 24,000+ solar pump installations. KUSUM tailwind potentially doubling. ₹1,900 Cr order book provides near-term visibility.
CRISIL BBB+/Stable (Feb 2026) · 52-week range ₹555–₹1,450 · At ~11.4x trailing P/E, Alpex is trading at a discount to Waaree, Premier, Vikram, Emmvee etc. The gap reflects SME illiquidity and pending cell capacity. Execution of the cell factory bridges this gap.
NSE SME: ALPEXSOLAR · April 2026 · Educational purposes only — not investment advice · See §12 for full disclaimer
02 · Company Snapshot
At a Glance
NSE Emerge: ALPEXSOLAR · Founded 1993 · Solar manufacturing since 2007 · Listed Feb 2024
Founded by first-generation technocrats Ashwani, Monica, and Vipin Sehgal — all engineers — Alpex entered photovoltaic manufacturing in 2007. Listed on NSE Emerge in February 2024, revenues have since grown more than 5×. MD Ashwani Sehgal is General Secretary of the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA), whose membership includes Adani, Tata, and Reliance — at times giving Alpex benefits of policy at the regulatory table.
CMP
₹839
April 01, 2026
52W Hi / Lo
₹1,450 / ₹555
Trailing P/E
~11.4x
TTM EPS ~₹73.6
Book Value/Sh
~₹185
Sep 2025
ROCE
50.5%
FY25
ROE
47.7%
FY25
Marquee Clients
NTPCSECITata PowerHALPower GridCoal India (EPC)BVG IndiaJaksonHAREDA / PEDASolarworld
Credit & Manufacturing
CRISIL BBB+/Stable (reaffirmed Feb 2026). Bank limits from HDFC, Axis, Kotak, Bandhan, IndusInd, EXIM Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Capital — total ~₹560 Cr. Preferential/Warrant proceeds: ₹260.17 Cr raised in Sep 2025 to aggressively fund cell and module expansion. 7 manufacturing units across Greater Noida, Kosi Kotwan (Mathura, UP), and Narmadapuram (MP) — 1 million sq ft total.
03 · Financial Performance
Power-Packed Numbers
Q3 FY26 was a record quarter on every metric · 9M FY26 revenue 3.43× the same period last year
Q3 FY26 Revenue
₹648 Cr
+245% YoY · Record
Q3 EBITDA
₹91 Cr
14% margin
Q3 PAT
₹54 Cr
8.37% margin
9M FY26 PAT
₹148 Cr
+208% YoY
Annual P&L Trend (₹ Crores)
Year
Revenue
EBITDA
OPM%
PAT
EPS (₹)
ROCE
FY23
196
13
6%
4
1.9
14%
FY24
414
37
9%
29
11.9
26%
FY25
783
126
16%
83
34.1
50%
TTM (9M ann.)
~2,068
~313
~15%
~197
~80
—
Quarterly Revenue & PAT (₹ Cr)
5Y Revenue CAGR
51%
5Y PAT CAGR
94%
3Y Revenue CAGR
68%
Cash Conversion
53 days
FY25
04 · Capacity & Integration Roadmap
Becoming a Full Value-Chain Player
7 manufacturing units · 1 million sq ft · FY27E: 3.6 GW modules + 2.2 GW cells + 12,000 MT aluminium frames
Module Build-Out
FY18 — 450 MW
450 MW
FY25 — 1.2 GW
1.2 GW
FY26E — 2.4 GW
2.4 GW
FY27E — 3.6 GW
3.6 GW Target
2.2 GW G12R TOPCon Cell Facility
Phase 1 — 1.4 GW: Targeted end-Q1 FY27. Engineers trained in Taiwan and China. Commissioned by international teams with 100 GW+ experience. Fully AGV-automated at Kosi Kotwan, Mathura (UP).
Phase 2 — 800 MW: Within 6 months of Phase 1. While the long-term goal is full captive consumption, initially Alpex may sell some high-efficiency TOPCon cells to the open market. Simultaneously, they will continue to procure external Mono/Chinese cells to fulfill existing solar pump and IPP mandates, which specifically require standard Mono panels rather than TOPCon.
G12R — straight to the latest format: Peers adopted M10/M12 and are now transitioning. Alpex starts on G12R directly — zero format-transition cost, industry-lowest capex-per-GW, highest-demand cell size. Average efficiency 25.5%. Management expects 90–95% utilization within 45 days of first production.
Silver & copper roadmap: Post-commissioning, silver becomes ~25% of cell cost. G12R reduces silver intensity vs. older lines. A group-level silver-paste JV with US/Taiwan technology is in progress; copper metallization is the longer-term cost lever.
Cell Factory Numbers
Total Cell Capex
₹825 Cr
FY27 Utilization Est.
~1 GW
Management estimate
Cell Revenue (full ramp)
~₹2,000 Cr
At 35–36% EBITDA
Ramp to 90% util.
45 days
Post first production
Adjacent Verticals
Aluminium frames: 6,000 MT/yr → 12,000 MT/yr. India's first solar company to integrate frames — saves ₹8–10/frame.
Solar pumps: 24,000+ installations. KUSUM allocation potentially doubling to 60 GW.
Mainboard peers Waaree, Premier, Emmvee, Vikram Solar, Websol Energy vs. Alpex — where the real divergence lies
The structural challenge for pure-play module makers: India's cumulative module manufacturing capacity surpassed 210 GW while annual installations remain ~45–55 GW — a roughly 4× oversupply ratio. Pure module assembly faces structural price compression. Only vertically integrated players, with domestic cell manufacturing qualifying for DCR premiums, maintain sustainable pricing power as the market matures.
Peer Comparison Table
Company
MCap (₹Cr)
Modules
Cells
EBITDA%
PAT%
P/E
Listing
Alpex Solar
~2,143
2.4→3.6 GW
2.2 GW (WIP)
~15%
~10%
~11x
NSE Emerge
Waaree Energies
~88,000
22.8+ GW+
5.4 GW+
~24%
~15%
~20x
Main
Premier Energies
~40,000
5.1 GW+
3.2 GW+
~28%
~17%
~31x
Main
Emmvee Photovoltaic
~15,000
7.8 GW+
2.94 GW+
~31%
~16%
~29x
Main
Vikram Solar
~6,600
4.5 GW+
—
~14%
~4%
~15x
Main
Websol Energy
~3,200
550 MW
600 MW
~44%
~27%
~28x
Main
Valuation gap: Alpex at ~11.4x vs. peers at 20–30x. The discount reflects SME illiquidity and pending (not yet operational) cell capacity. If the cell factory executes, this gap closes toward peers.
North India geography edge: Waaree, Premier, and Emmvee are concentrated in Karnataka/Telangana/Gujarat. Vikram Solar is based in West Bengal/UP but module-only. Alpex's UP+MP footprint gives a clear logistics advantage in UP, Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan — states with the most aggressive KUSUM and rooftop solar programs.
Aluminium frame — unique: No mainboard peer (including Waaree, Premier, Emmvee, Vikram, or Websol) has integrated aluminium frame manufacturing at Alpex's scale. This is a direct cost advantage and supply-chain differentiator. Websol has cell integration but no frames.
G12R — first mover: Emmvee runs 16-busbar cells; Waaree is transitioning; Premier scaling G12R. Alpex starts late but on G12R directly — no format-transition write-off, lowest capex-per-GW, most in-demand cell size for utility-scale tenders across India and globally.
P/E Comparison
Alpex Solar
~11.4x
Websol
~13x
Vikram Solar
~15x
Waaree Energies
~25x
Premier
~30x
Emmvee
~30x
Vikram Solar trades at a 40–50% valuation discount to peers (Waaree, Premier, Emmvee) mainly because of its massive ₹10,000 cr capex over the next 30 months — especially the unproven cell, BESS integration, which markets see as high execution risk until FY27 proof arrives. Sequential margin softness, heavy ALMM/policy dependence, and lingering US export tariff overhang add to the caution, even with a solid 10.58 GW order book and improving financial discipline.
06 · Industry Context & Structural Trends
India's Solar Industry — Where It's Heading
The structural forces reshaping who wins and who gets squeezed in Indian solar manufacturing
The numbers that matter: India added 119 GW of module capacity in calendar 2025 alone. Cumulative module capacity reached ~210 GW by end-2025. Domestic cell capacity: just ~27 GW. Annual solar installations: ~45–55 GW. The module-to-demand ratio is roughly 4×. Structural oversupply in modules is not a future risk — it is a present reality. Only integrated or diversified players can maintain pricing power.
Power demand growing at 5.8% CAGR to FY30: driven by data centres, EV charging, and infrastructure capex. India needs 190–200 GW of new RE capacity by FY30. Solar accounts for the lion's share of the generation investment pipeline.
Near-zero peak power deficit: FY25's rapid RE additions compressed exchange prices to ₹3–4/kWh. Marginal energy surpluses are projected by FY27E. Policy is pivoting to storage-backed, hybrid, and dispatchable tenders — a structural shift that favours integrated players over pure module makers.
Cells remain the real bottleneck: 210 GW of module capacity, only ~27 GW of domestic cells. This scarcity is why ALMM List II (effective June 2026) mandating domestic cells in government projects is so transformative. Fewer than 10 companies currently hold this certification. Alpex will soon be one of them.
Vertical and horizontal integration is now table stakes: Pure module assembly faces structural oversupply, price compression, and lumpy tender cycles. Players integrating into cells (vertically) and EPC, BESS, inverters, and transformers (horizontally) create multiple profit pools. Waaree, Premier, and Emmvee are all executing this playbook at mainboard scale. Alpex is executing it at SME scale.
US market headwinds — but Alpex is insulated: Policy changes in the US are reducing the market for Indian module exports. Alpex derives ~98% of revenue from India, giving it zero direct US export exposure. Near-term insulation; long-term, this limits the export premium that larger peers can command.
Storage is the next frontier: India's auctioned storage capacity surged 6.8× YoY in 2025. Solar manufacturers offering bundled module + BESS + EPC solutions command premium pricing and stickier customer relationships — the direction the entire sector is heading.
India Manufacturing Capacity vs. Demand (End 2025)
Module capacity
~210 GW cumulative
Annual installations
~55 GW demand
Cell capacity
~27 GW — the bottleneck
07 · Govt Policy & DCR Tailwinds
India's Anti-China Solar Push
ALMM · DCR · BCD · KUSUM · PLI — a policy stack designed to reward domestic cell and module makers
ALMM List II (ALCM) — targeted June 2026 (Phased Rollout Likely): While the official mandate requires domestic cells for government projects by June 2026, staggered implementation seems more likely as India lacks enough domestic cells to meet deadline (e.g., exempting certain order types initially). However, even with a gradual rollout, Alpex's 2.2 GW facility ensures it captures premium captive demand in the country as the mandate progressively tightens.
DCR pricing premium: Modules with domestic cells command ₹22–24/Wp vs. ₹14–18/Wp for non-DCR modules — a 30–50% differential. Currently Alpex buys cells externally. Post-cell-factory, entire module output can qualify for DCR pricing — a fundamental shift in blended realization.
BCD structure (Feb 2025 update): BCD on imported solar modules was nominally reduced to 20% from 40%, but the Agricultural and Infrastructure Development Cess of 20% on modules and 7.5% on cells was simultaneously introduced — keeping effective duty unchanged. The headline cut was cosmetic; protection remains fully intact.
China's export price effect: China removed VAT rebates on solar module exports in late 2024, raising Chinese export prices 3–5% globally. This contributed to non-DCR module prices firming in India in early 2026. Management guided blended realization moving from ₹17.5/Wp toward ₹18.5–19/Wp.
KUSUM — potential 2×: The PM-KUSUM programme's initial 30 GW allocation is expected to double to 60 GW. Alpex, with 24,000+ pump installations and deep UP and Rajasthan relationships, is among the best-positioned beneficiaries.
Budget 2026: BCD exempted on sodium antimonate used in solar glass manufacturing — directly lowering input costs for domestic module makers including Alpex.
India–US Trade Deal (Feb 2026): Tariff reductions on Indian solar module exports to the US. Once Alpex has in-house cells (~80% domestic BOM), US export eligibility opens. CEO Aditya Sehgal is actively developing US and EU relationships.
PLI position: Alpex is not a PLI Tranche I or II awardee. However, ALMM List II certification — once the cell line is live — provides an equivalent market-access benefit in the government project segment, which accounts for the majority of Indian solar capacity additions.
Preferential Allotment & Promoter Conviction: In Sep 2025, Alpex successfully raised ₹260.17 Cr via a preferential allotment of shares and warrants at a price of ₹1,212 per share. Notably, promoters Ashwani, Vipin, Aditya, and Udaya Sehgal subscribed to 3,50,000 warrants at this ₹1,212 price—demonstrating massive conviction. CMP ₹839 represents a ~15.6% discount to the Aug 2025 certified fair value of ₹995.07, and a massive ~30% discount to the ₹1,212 price at which promoters and institutions recently infused ₹260 Cr
09 · Management & Concall
The Team Behind the Numbers
Q3 FY26 earnings call — February 10, 2026 · Record quarter · 2× revenue guidance maintained for FY27 and FY28
Founder & Managing Director
Ashwani Sehgal
Mech. Engineering, Punjab University · General Secretary, ISMA
14-year ISMA President — the body that lobbied for ALMM, ALCM, and ALWM policies, with membership including Adani, Tata, and Reliance. Conservative communicator: when he says "2×," he has delivered it three years running. His regulatory influence gives Alpex disproportionate policy voice at every MNRE table.
CEO
Aditya Sehgal
BSc Electrical Engineering, UC Berkeley
Driving US and EU export strategy. Post-cell-factory, ~80% of module bill of materials will be produced in-house — giving Alpex a structural cost advantage in global exports. Key to unlocking the international revenue story that currently does not feature in any financial model.
Director — Cell Facility
Vipin Sehgal
Co-Founder · Technical lead for cell project
Overseeing the 2.2 GW G12R TOPCon facility. Drove the decision to adopt G12R directly — bypassing M12 entirely — for zero format-transition cost. Also leads the group silver-paste JV (US/Taiwan technology), with copper metallization as the next step.
CFO / VP Finance
Udaya Sehgal / L.K. Dhamija
Finance leadership · 8+ banking relationships
Managing banking facilities across 8+ lenders. Bank credit limits lagged explosive revenue growth, necessitating a ₹125 Cr NCD at 13–14% coupon. Refinancing at lower rates post-capex completion is a near-term financial catalyst that should meaningfully improve net margins.
Key Guidance from Q3 FY26 Earnings Call
Revenue guidance FY27: ~₹3,000 Cr — "more than enough orders in hand." 2× growth is the standing guidance for FY27 and FY28.
EBITDA margin path: Current 14–16% (modules + EPC) will expand rapidly once the cell line contributes at 35–36% EBITDA margins. High-teens PAT margins targeted for FY28.
Blended realization: Moving from ₹17.5/Wp toward ₹18.5–19/Wp. DCR module mix improving; non-DCR prices firming on the back of Chinese export cost increases.
Export optionality: US and EU markets being actively developed. ~80% domestic BOM once cells are live — a structural cost advantage vs. peers using imported cells.
Main board migration: FY28 target to NSE and BSE main boards — the liquidity catalyst that triggers institutional discovery and a potential multiple re-rating.
10 · BESS & Future Verticals
Beyond Modules & Cells
Where Alpex stands today, what it is exploring, and how it compares with mainboard peers that are already building horizontally
The sector direction: India's auctioned storage capacity surged 6.8× YoY in 2025. Standalone solar tenders are contracting; storage-backed and hybrid tenders are surging. Battery energy storage, inverters, and transformers are the fastest-growing adjacent verticals in Indian renewable energy. Mainboard peers — Waaree (20 GWh BESS, 4 GW inverters, 20,000 MVA transformers, green hydrogen) and Premier (12 GWh BESS, KSolare inverters, Transcon transformers) — have already committed significant capital to this horizontal pivot. Alpex is currently focused on its cell capex — but what comes next matters enormously for the long-term thesis.
Alpex Has Today
☀ PV Modules — 2.4 GW → 3.6 GW
Core. TOPCon and bifacial range. ₹1,879 Cr TTM revenue. Clients across NTPC, SECI, Tata Power, HAL. Funded the entire cell capex programme.
🏭 TOPCon Cells — 2.2 GW (under construction)
The margin catalyst. G12R format. 25.5% efficiency. ~₹1,000 Cr FY27 revenue at 35–36% EBITDA expected — this transforms the earnings profile entirely.
🔩 Aluminium Frames — 6,000 → 12,000 MT/yr
Already operational. India's first solar company to integrate frames. Direct cost saving of ₹8–10 per frame vs. external sourcing.
💧 Solar Pumps — 24,000+ Installations
B2G and KUSUM-focused. High stickiness once installed. KUSUM allocation potentially doubling to 60 GW is a multi-year tailwind.
⚡ EPC + IPP — ₹1,900 Cr Order Book
Coal India ₹350 Cr EPC + SECI ₹210 Cr modules + KUSUM tenders. 115 MW EPC target and 100 MW IPP portfolio in execution.
Alpex Is Watching Next
🔋 BESS — Not Yet Committed
Alpex has not announced a BESS play. Waaree is building 20 GWh; Premier 12 GWh. India's battery storage market is the fastest-growing adjacent vertical. Any BESS announcement from Alpex would be a significant re-rating signal and is the most important future development to monitor.
⚙ Inverters / Transformers — Not Yet
Premier acquired KSolare (500,000 inverters/year) and Transcon (2.5→16.75 GVA). Waaree expanded to 4 GW inverters and 20,000 MVA transformers. Alpex is keeping capital focused on the cell factory — these horizontal moves are likely post-FY27 once cell capex peaks and cash flows strengthen.
🌿 Green Hydrogen — Long-Dated Optionality
Alpex GH2 Private Limited was acquired as a subsidiary in May 2024. Management has stated no major commitment until PLI-style government support is available. This is optionality, not near-term earnings.
⚠ The Honest Gap vs. Peers
Alpex is 1–2 years behind mainboard peers on BESS, inverters, and transformers. This is partly a function of scale (₹2,143 Cr MCap vs. ₹88,000 Cr for Waaree) but is also a risk. As tenders increasingly require bundled storage and energy solutions, Alpex may need to accelerate this pivot faster than its current roadmap suggests.
11 · Risks & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Honest assessment — the bear case risks deserve equal weight alongside the bull story
Preferential Lock-in Opening: Shares and warrants allotted in the September 2025 preferential issue (at ₹1,212) will have standard lock-ins expiring progressively. While the current CMP (₹839) is significantly below the allotment price, minimizing immediate profit-booking risk, the unlocking of ~21.46 lakh shares increases the free float and may cause structural liquidity adjustments.
Promoter Pledge — ⚠ Yellow Flag, Watch Closely: ~6.48% of outstanding shares pledged by promoters as of December 2025, up from near-zero earlier in the year. Context: ₹125 Cr NCDs raised at 13–14% coupon because bank credit limits lagged explosive revenue growth. At ~6.5% pledge on 65.9% promoter holding, roughly 10% of promoter-held shares are encumbered. The stock already fell materially from peak. Further sharp decline risks margin calls and distressed selling. Pledge reduction as cell capex completes is the key green signal.
Cell Commissioning Delay: Phase 1 (1.4 GW) shifted from Q4 FY26 to end-Q1 FY27 already. Any further delay postpones the entire earnings re-rating thesis. Solar cell manufacturing at scale is technically complex. This is the single most important monitorable for the investment thesis.
Module Overcapacity: India's ~210 GW module capacity is roughly 4× annual demand. Module-only players face structural margin squeeze. Alpex's DCR insulation via its cell factory is the primary defence. While an ALMM List II (ALCM) delay or phased implementation is already widely expected (due to industry-wide cell shortages), a complete rollback of the policy could remove this protection entirely if that happens. Module surplus conditions are possible at utilization rates above 50% by FY27–28E.
Chinese Competition (Non-DCR): Chinese modules continue to aggressively price the private rooftop and C&I segments. China's VAT rebate removal only partially offset their structural cost advantage. Alpex competes in this segment with roughly half its revenue mix today.
High-Cost Debt: Borrowings grew from ₹49 Cr (FY24) to ₹174 Cr (Sep 2025). NCDs at 13–14% are expensive. Q3 FY26 interest cost was ₹6 Cr, up from ₹2 Cr in the same quarter last year. Refinancing at lower rates post-capex is the fix but continues to pressure near-term PAT margins.
Silver Cost Risk (Post Cell Factory): Currently no direct silver exposure — Alpex buys cells externally. Once the cell factory is live, silver becomes ~25% of cell cost industry-wide. G12R technology reduces silver intensity; the group silver-paste JV mitigates further. Still a new and volatile cost input that does not exist in today's P&L.
SME Illiquidity: Daily volumes range 12,000–6L+ shares. The December 8, 2025 sector sell-off saw Alpex drop from ₹1,030 to ₹819 in one session on 628,000 shares. Any forced selling creates outsized price moves. Main board migration (FY28 target) is the structural fix.
12 · Scenarios · Monitorables · Disclaimer
Bull · Base · Bear & Key Signals
Three paths forward — probability is yours to assign.
🐂 Bull Case
₹3,000–3,500Cr
Cell commissions Q1 FY27 on schedule, ramps to ~1 GW within 45 days. EBITDA margins expand to 22–25%. Market re-rates to 15× P/E. Main board listing triggers institutional discovery. Promoter pledge fully eliminated.
EPS ₹160+15× P/EOn schedule
📊 Base Case
₹2,200–2,500Cr
Cell line delayed 3–4 months into H1 FY27. Partial ramp in FY27. Margins reach 17–18%. Market re-rates modestly to 12× as execution becomes clearer. 60–100% upside from current CMP. Pledge reduces gradually.
EPS ₹120+12× P/EPartial ramp
🐻 Bear Case
₹1,750–1,900Cr
Cell line delayed 6+ months. Module prices possibly suffer from overcapacity. Pledge becomes an overhang. High NCD costs compress margins. P/E compresses to 8–9×. Stock range-bound or below current CMP. No dividend expected.
EPS ₹100-1058–9× P/EDelay risk
Key Monitorables
What to Watch
Signal
Cadence
Cell commissioning
Trial production start; Phase 1 official declaration
Monthly
Promoter pledge %
Reduction = positive; any increase = caution flag
Quarterly
Blended realization (₹/Wp)
₹17.5 → ₹18.5–19 = on track with guidance
Concall
EBITDA margin %
Hold 14–16% pre-cell; expand meaningfully post-cell
Effective June 2026 — any delay or rollback = key risk
Regulatory
BESS / horizontal announcement
Any acquisition or JV signals strategic pivot
As announced
Main board filing
NSE / BSE main = liquidity + institutional re-rate
FY28
This presentation is prepared for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a buy/sell recommendation, or a research report as defined under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014.
Investing in SME-listed securities involves significant risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, lower regulatory disclosures, and concentration risk. The stock fell materially from its 52-week high. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
All data is sourced from publicly available information including NSE filings, company concall transcripts, investor presentations, credit rating rationales, and publicly available industry reports. All forward-looking estimates are indicative only. Always conduct independent due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decision.